CBAM certificate price: how it is set, and the formula behind the cost

The price is not set by a market for CBAM certificates. Under Article 21 of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 the Commission calculates it as the weighted average of the auction clearing prices of EU ETS allowances over the relevant period. The detailed method and the publication rules are in Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2548 on the calculation and publication of CBAM certificate prices.

Tying the price to EU ETS auctions is the point of the mechanism: an importer pays for embedded emissions at the same carbon price an EU producer pays for its own.

For 2026 the Commission publishes four quarterly prices. Each is calculated in the first calendar week after the quarter ends and applies to the certificates corresponding to emissions in CBAM goods imported during that quarter.

So two consignments of the same good imported in March and in August 2026 are priced differently, even though both certificates are bought in 2027.

From 2027 onwards the Commission calculates and publishes a weekly price. Goods imported in 2027 and later are therefore priced closer to the EU ETS market at the time certificates are bought. Nobody can tell you that price in advance; any forward number is an assumption about the EU ETS, and should be presented as one.

• From February 2027 authorised declarants buy certificates on the common central platform under Article 20 of the CBAM Regulation, starting with those for 2026 imports.
• By 30 September 2027 the declarant files its first annual CBAM declaration, covering 2026 imports, and surrenders the certificates it owes.
• From 2027, national competent authorities describe a quarterly holding rule: by the end of each quarter a declarant above the threshold must hold certificates for at least 50% of the emissions embedded in goods imported since the start of the year.
• Re-purchase: after surrender, a declarant may ask for certificates left in its Registry account to be bought back; the request is due by 31 October of the year of surrender.

Only an authorised CBAM declarant buys certificates. An exporter outside the EU never buys or holds them.

The Commission's guidance combines Articles 7, 9 and 31 of the CBAM Regulation into one formula for the number of certificates owed for each imported good g:

Certificates(g) = max[0 ; SEE(g) − SEFA(g) − SECPP(g) ÷ RP] × M(g)

• SEE — specific embedded emissions of the good, tCO₂e per tonne, from the operator’s verified report or from the Commission's default value;
• SEFA — specific embedded free allocation, the benchmark scaled by the CBAM factor (see CBAM benchmarks);
• SECPP ÷ RP — any eligible carbon price effectively paid in the country of production, net of rebates, converted into certificates using the reference price, the yearly average of the CBAM certificate prices;
• M — mass imported in the year.

The cost is then the number of certificates multiplied by the applicable price. If the result inside the brackets is negative, the obligation is zero.

The numbers below are an illustration, not a quote and not a forecast. They use the reinforcing bar from the Karbon360 demo installation shown further down this page.

• Good: reinforcing bars, CN 7214 20 00, production route (C).
• Specific embedded emissions: 2.622 tCO₂e/t, direct only, because iron and steel goods are charged on direct emissions.
• Mass imported into the EU in 2026: 1,000 t.
• Free allocation: for illustration, the whole-chain benchmark for route (C), 1.364 tCO₂e/t, × CBAM factor 97.5% × CSCF 1.0 = 1.330 tCO₂e/t.
• No carbon price paid in the country of production.

(2.622 − 1.330) × 1,000 t = 1,292 certificates

At the Q3 2026 price of €82.32 that is about €106,375; at a €70 assumption, the figure on the demo screen, about €90,455. With a default value instead of actual data the embedded emissions figure would carry the mark-up, and the certificate count would rise with it.

The certificate price is the same for every importer. What differs between two suppliers of the same product is the number of certificates their goods carry:

• Actual data instead of defaults. Default values are set high and marked up each year. Actual values monitored under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2547 and verified by an accredited verifier replace them.
• The right production route. The route decides the benchmark, and the benchmark decides how much is deducted.
• Precursor data. Precursors on verified supplier data, or from EU origin, cost less than precursors on defaults.
• Carbon price paid at home. Where a mandatory carbon price is paid in the country of production, a certified deduction lowers the count.