CBAM in 2026–2027: what actually changes for Balkan exporters

The definitive regime is in force, the first certificates are sold in February 2027, and a 50-tonne rule decides who escapes entirely. Here is the timeline as it stands — and what your EU customers will ask you for at each step.

The short version

CBAM — the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism — left its trial phase behind on 1 January 2026. The reporting-only transitional period is over; the definitive regime is in force. What softens the landing is the October 2025 Omnibus Regulation, which pushed the first certificate purchases to February 2027 and exempted small importers entirely. For a Western Balkan exporter of steel, aluminium, cement or fertilisers, that combination means one thing: 2026 is the year your data gets collected, and 2027 is the year it starts costing your customers money.

CBAM in 2026–2027: What Actually Changes for Balkan Exporters | Karbon360°
1 Jan 2026
Definitive regime begins. EU importers of covered goods need authorisation and must track embedded emissions of what they import.
During 2026
Importers collect installation-level emissions data from suppliers for everything imported this year. This is when the questionnaires arrive.
1 Feb 2027
Sale of CBAM certificates begins, covering emissions embedded in 2026 imports — priced against the EU ETS.
30 Sep 2027
Deadline for the annual CBAM declaration covering 2026, with certificates surrendered against declared embedded emissions.

The 50-tonne rule — and why you can’t count on it

The Omnibus Regulation introduced a mass-based exemption: importers whose total net imports of covered goods stay under 50 tonnes per year are released from CBAM obligations altogether. That genuinely removes small and occasional importers from the system.

But read it from the exporter’s side: the threshold applies to your customer’s imports, not your production. A customer buying 40 tonnes from you may be exempt this year — and over the threshold next year, or already over it because of what they buy from someone else. Any serious EU buyer of metal, cement or fertiliser inputs crosses 50 tonnes without noticing. Planning your data readiness around a customer’s exemption is planning around something you can’t see and don’t control.

What the questionnaires ask for

Requests reaching suppliers this year converge on the same substance: emissions calculated at installation level — production volumes, fuel and electricity consumption, process emissions where relevant — plus the factors used, and documentation a verifier can follow. The full breakdown is on our CBAM page, but the property that decides whether your data gets used is simple: traceability. A number without a documented origin is a number your customer’s verifier will replace with a default value.

Why defaults hurt you: when actual data is missing, importers fall back on default values set conservatively by the European Commission. Conservative defaults make your goods look more carbon-intensive than they are — and from February 2027, more expensive. Two suppliers, same product: the one with credible actual data is the cheaper one to import from.

What to do with the months left in 2026

  • Start the monthly record now. Certificates in 2027 are priced on 2026 emissions. Every month without structured energy and production data is a month your customer covers with defaults.
  • Reconcile against invoices. The data that survives verification is the data that matches the paperwork — electricity invoices, fuel purchases, production logs.
  • Document your factors. Which emission factors, from which source, at which version. “We used a website” is not an answer a verifier accepts.
  • Answer the first request well. Importers are building supplier lists this year. The suppliers who respond credibly in 2026 become the easy choice in 2027.
CBAM in 2026–2027: What Actually Changes for Balkan Exporters | Karbon360°

Where does your company stand?

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Sources: Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (CBAM) as amended by the CBAM Omnibus Regulation adopted 8 October 2025. This article summarises the rules as of August 2026 and is not legal advice; always work from your customer’s specific request.